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Effects of profit-reducing policies on firm survival, financial performance, and new drug introductions in the research-based pharmaceutical industry

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  • Darren Filson

    (Claremont Graduate University, 160 E. Tenth Street, Claremont, CA 91711, USA)

  • Neal Masia

    (Pfizer Inc, New York, NY, USA)

Abstract

We introduce a computational model of the evolution of a value-maximizing research-based pharmaceutical firm and parameterize it using estimates of R&D costs, profit distributions, and candidate attrition rates. We use the model to estimate how the probability of surviving and covering the costs of R&D depends on R&D scale and the policy regime. In the model, even small reductions in profitability have substantial impacts on firm success and innovation, but the effects may not be visible to consumers for many years. Smaller and newer firms are most vulnerable to reductions in the rewards for innovation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren Filson & Neal Masia, 2007. "Effects of profit-reducing policies on firm survival, financial performance, and new drug introductions in the research-based pharmaceutical industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4-5), pages 329-351.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:28:y:2007:i:4-5:p:329-351
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.1344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hsu, Jason C. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt28j7c9r4, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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    3. Jason C. Hsu & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2003. "A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives," NBER Working Papers 10041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Frank R. Lichtenberg & Joel Waldfogel, 2003. "Does Misery Love Company? Evidence from pharmaceutical markets before and after the Orphan Drug Act," NBER Working Papers 9750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Filson, Darren & Gretz, Richard T., 2004. "Strategic innovation and technology adoption in an evolving industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 89-121, January.
    6. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
    7. Cockburn, Iain M. & Henderson, Rebecca M., 2001. "Scale and scope in drug development: unpacking the advantages of size in pharmaceutical research," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1033-1057, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bergman, Mats & Granlund, David & Rudholm, Niklas, 2016. "Squeezing the last drop out of your suppliers: an empirical study of market-based purchasing policies for generic pharmaceuticals," HUI Working Papers 116, HUI Research.
    2. Mats A. Bergman & David Granlund & Niklas Rudholm, 2017. "Squeezing the Last Drop Out of Your Suppliers: An Empirical Study of Market-Based Purchasing Policies for Generic Pharmaceuticals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 969-996, December.
    3. Stephan Eger & Jörg Mahlich, 2014. "Pharmaceutical regulation in Europe and its impact on corporate R&D," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, December.

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