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Patents, R and D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return

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  • Ariel Pakes

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present and estimate a model which allows one to use the recently computerized U.S. Patent Office's data base to identify when and where changes in inventive output have occurred. The model assumes a firm which chooses a research strategy to maximize the expected discounted value of the net cash flows from its activities, and a stock market that evaluates this expectation at different dates (it is a version of the Lucas-Prescott, 1971, investment model). Patents are taken as an indicator of the output of the firm's research laboratories. These assumptions place a set of testable restrictions on the stochastic process generating patents, R&D, and the stock market rate of return on the firm's equity (the econometric framework used is that of a restricted index, or dynamic factor-analysis model [Sargent and Sims, 1977; Geweke, 1977b]). The data contain observations on these three variables for 120 firms over an eight year period. The model fits these data quite well and the final section reports on the implications of the parameter estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel Pakes, 1981. "Patents, R and D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," NBER Working Papers 0786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0786
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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1984. "An Exploration into the Determinants of Research Intensity," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 209-232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Meese, Richard, 1980. "Dynamic factor demand schedules for labor and capital under rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 141-158, September.
    4. Zvi Griliches, 1973. "Research Expenditures and Growth Accounting," International Economic Association Series, in: B. R. Williams (ed.), Science and Technology in Economic Growth, chapter 3, pages 59-95, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ariel Pakes & Zvi Griliches, 1980. "Patents and R and D at the Firm Level: A First Look," NBER Working Papers 0561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Comanor, William S & Scherer, Frederic M, 1969. "Patent Statistics as a Measure of Technical Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 392-398, May/June.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    9. Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research & Committee on Economic Growth of the Social Science Research Council, 1962. "The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ62-1.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1974. "Science, Invention and Economic Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(333), pages 90-108, March.
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Slottje, Daniel J. & Millimet, Daniel L. & Buchanan, Michael J., 2007. "Econometric analysis of copyrights," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 303-317, August.
    2. Lahr, Henry & Mina, Andrea, 2016. "Venture capital investments and the technological performance of portfolio firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 303-318.
    3. Deeds, David L. & Decarolis, DONA & Coombs, Joseph, 2000. "Dynamic capabilities and new product development in high technology ventures: An empirical analysis of new biotechnology firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 211-229, May.
    4. Pierre A. Mohnen & M. Ishaq Nadiri & Ingmar R. Prucha, 1984. "R&D, Production Structure, and Productivity Growth in the U.S., Japaneseand German Manufacturing Sectors," NBER Working Papers 1264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Iain Cockburn & Rebecca Henderson & Scott Stern, 1999. "Balancing Incentives: The Tension Between Basic and Applied Research," NBER Working Papers 6882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Clemente Forero & Andrés Zambrano, 2004. "La dinámica de las publicaciones y las patentes como una aproximación al desarrollo científico y tecnológico de los países," Borradores de Investigación 2977, Universidad del Rosario.
    7. Ariel Pakes, 1984. "Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return: A Summary of Some Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 253-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrew B. Abel, 1984. "R&D and the Market Value of the Firm: A Note," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 261-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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