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Forecasting The Treasury Bill Rate: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach

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  • Thomas C. Chiang
  • Douglas R. Kahl

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  • Thomas C. Chiang & Douglas R. Kahl, 1991. "Forecasting The Treasury Bill Rate: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 327-336, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:14:y:1991:i:4:p:327-336
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1991.tb00670.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garbade, Kenneth & Wachtel, Paul, 1978. "Time variation in the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 755-765, November.
    2. Kane, Edward J, 1983. "Nested Tests of Alternative Term-Structure Theories," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 115-123, February.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    4. Emmett Elam & Bruce L. Dixon, 1988. "Examining the validity of a test of futures market efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 365-372, June.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
    6. Lauterbach, Beni, 1989. "Consumption volatility, production volatility, spot-rate volatility, and the returns on treasury bills and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 155-179, September.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 61-110.
    9. Hamburger, Michael J & Platt, Elliott N, 1975. "The Expectations Hypothesis and the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 190-199, May.
    10. Douglas R. Kahl & Johannes Ledolter, 1983. "A Recursive Kalman Filter Forecasting Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(11), pages 1325-1333, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
    2. Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Thomas C. Chiang, 2017. "Surprises, sentiments, and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 1-28, July.
    3. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2008. "Forecasting Interest Rates in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-41, March.
    5. Drummond, Paulo, 1997. "Infrequent large nominal devaluations and their impact on the futures prices for freingn exchange in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 51(2), April.
    6. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    7. Donald S. Allen & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1997. "A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control," Working Papers 1997-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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