IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0057.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distress in American Agriculture, 1866-1914

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas F. Cooley
  • Steven J. DeCanio

Abstract

The agrarian unrest in the United States at the end of the nineteenth century is examined. This unrest is often viewed as stemming from the inability of farmers to adapt to changing conditions in world agriculture. This hypothesis is tested in the context of a distributed lag supply function. Varying parameter estimation methods are used to trace the history of the parameters in the supply function and to decompose observed prices into permanent and transitory components over time. The patterns of variation are tested for conformity with a model of rational price-expectation formation. The conclusion is that farmers behaved as economic theory would predict, but that neither theory nor practice gave them relief from the troubles which plagued them.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas F. Cooley & Steven J. DeCanio, 1974. "Varying-Parameter Supply Functions and the Sources of Economic Distress in American Agriculture, 1866-1914," NBER Working Papers 0057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0057.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 248-256, May.
    2. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-371, June.
    3. Mayhew, Anne, 1972. "A Reappraisal of the Causes of Farm Protest in the United States, 1870–1900," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 464-475, June.
    4. Wright, Gavin, 1974. "Cotton Competition and the Post-Bellum Recovery of the American South," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 610-635, September.
    5. Vahid F. Nowshirvani, 1971. "A Modified Adaptive Expectations Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 116-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Ferrie, 2005. "History Lessons: The End of American Exceptionalism? Mobility in the United States Since 1850," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 199-215, Summer.
    2. Various, 1975. "Staff Reports on Research Under Way," NBER Chapters, in: Understanding Economic Change, pages 9-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Freebairn, John W. & Rausser, Gordon C., 1974. "Updating Parameter Estimates: A Least Squares Approach with an Application to the Inventory of Beef Cows," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(02), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Min, Chung-ki, 1998. "A Gibbs sampling approach to estimation and prediction of time-varying-parameter models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 171-194, April.
    3. Arash Hadizadeh & Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Zahra Mila Elmi, 2013. "An Estimation of Seasonal GDP Gap in Iran: Application of Adaptive Least Squares Method," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 18(1), pages 157-177, winter.
    4. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    6. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    8. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2017. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Under Model Instability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 183-201, April.
    9. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    10. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 317-340, April.
    11. Rodríguez, Alejandro & Ruiz, Esther, 2012. "Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with estimated parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 62-74, January.
    12. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    13. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
    14. Donald T. Sant, 1977. "Generalized Least Squares Applied to Time Varying Parameter Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 3, pages 301-314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Thomas F. Cooley, 1975. "A Comparison of Robust and Varying Parameter Estimates of a Macro-Econometric Model," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 3, pages 373-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2015. "Asymmetric impacts of the determinants of energy intensity in Nigeria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 570-580.
    17. Ingco, Merlinda D. & Manderscheid, Lester V., 1988. "Modelling Parameter Variation in Econometric Models: A Handbook," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201375, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    18. Ingco, Merlinda D. & Hilker, James H., 1988. "Michigan State University Agriculture Model: U.S. Livestock and Poultry Supply and Demand Component -- Model Structure, Specification, and Empirical Results," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201371, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    19. Jean-Louis Combes & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2014. "Does Pro-cyclical Aid Lead to Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy? An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," CERDI Working papers halshs-01084600, HAL.
    20. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.