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Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets are Changing

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  • Stock, James
  • Feldstein, Martin

Abstract

This article considers constructing monetary aggregates in the presence of financial market innovations and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose two procedures for constructing a monetary aggregate with the objective of providing a reliable monetary leading indicator of nominal GDP. In the first, subaggregates discretely switch in and out; in the second, the aggregate's growth is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a multivariate random walk. These procedures are used to examine augmenting M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. The alternative aggregates are broadly similar to M2, but during 1992–1993 they outperform M2.

Suggested Citation

  • Stock, James & Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets are Changing," Scholarly Articles 2799053, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:2799053
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    Cited by:

    1. David C. Parsley & Helen A. Popper, 1998. "Exchange Rates, Domestic Prices, and Central Bank Actions: Recent U.S. Experience," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 957-972, April.
    2. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu, 1996. "The CAPM-Extended Divisia Monetary Aggregate with Exact Tracking under Risk," Finance 9602001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. William A. Barnett & Yi Liu & Haiyang Xu & Mark Jensen, 1996. "The CAPM Risk Adjustment Needed for Exact Aggregation over Financial Assets," Econometrics 9602003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pierre L. Siklos & Andrew G. Barton, 2001. "Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Leigh Drake & Adrian Fleissig, 2004. "Admissible Monetary Aggregates and UK Inflation Targeting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    7. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1996. "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," Econometrics 9602002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Jun 1999.
    8. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    10. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Feldstein, Martin & Stock, James H., 1996. "Measuring money growth when financial markets are changing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-27, February.
    12. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    13. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    14. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
    15. N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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