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The impact of inflation expectations on Polish consumers’ spending and saving

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  • Filip Premik
  • Ewa Stanisławska

Abstract

We explore the relation between inflation expectations of consumers and their spending and saving behavior(proxied by buying and saving attitude) using micro data from Consumer Opinion Survey. This issue has gained attention in recent times due to the continuing deflation in Poland,raising concerns about consumption dynamics. The analysis suggests that inflation expectations negatively affect the saving attitude, especially in the group of consumers characterized by very good financial situation. Moreover, the role of inflation expectations has increased since the global financial crisis. The results for the buying attitude are somewhat puzzling – especially if we try to interpret them together with the results for the saving attitude – as they suggest also negative (although very weak) link to inflation expectations. We suspect that it is related to the formulation of the survey questions and attach more weight to the conclusions from analysis of the saving attitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Filip Premik & Ewa Stanisławska, 2017. "The impact of inflation expectations on Polish consumers’ spending and saving," NBP Working Papers 255, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:255
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gabe Jacob de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Zivile Zekaite, 2020. "Thick modelling income and wealth effects: a forecast application to euro area private consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 257-286, January.
    3. Wang, Dong & Zhang, Qiqi & Yang, Jingya, 2022. "Higher education expansion and national savings level: Evidence from macro data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 92-103.
    4. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019, Bank of Finland.
    5. de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Zekaite, Zivile & Herrero, Pablo, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2343, European Central Bank.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2019, Bank of Finland.
    8. Cong Khai Dinh & Quang Thanh Ngo & Trung Thanh Nguyen, 2021. "Medium- and High-Tech Export and Renewable Energy Consumption: Non-Linear Evidence from the ASEAN Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    9. SYED, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2021. "Heterogeneous consumers in the Euro-Area, facing homogeneous monetary policy: Tale of two large economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. Sadiq, Mohd & Bharti, Kumkum & Adil, Mohd & Singh, Ramendra, 2021. "Why do consumers buy green apparel? The role of dispositional traits, environmental orientation, environmental knowledge, and monetary incentive," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; consumption; savings; survey data; consumer sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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