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Spatial and hedonic analysis of house price dynamics in Warsaw

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Widłak
  • Joanna Waszczuk
  • Krzysztof Olszewski

Abstract

The aim of our article is to analyze the dynamics of housing prices in the secondary housing market in Warsaw from Q1 2006 to Q3 2013, taking into account the spatial relationship between prices. In the first part of this research we compare the geographically weighted regression with a linear regression estimated using OLS with spatial variables. In the second part, we combine the geographically weighted regression with the penalized spline regression to extract the effect of time on prices. With this method we obtain a nonlinear and more precise measure of time effects and improved goodness-of-fit statistics. We obtain a hedonic index, that is more robust against short-term changes in house prices than the usual, linear hedonic index. This is a novel approach, which has not been applied before in the case of the Polish housing market. The index allows us to show how interest rates or the housing policy influenced house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Widłak & Joanna Waszczuk & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2015. "Spatial and hedonic analysis of house price dynamics in Warsaw," NBP Working Papers 197, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:197
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maria J. Barcena & Patricia Mendez & Maria B. Palacios & Fernando Tusell, 2013. "Measuring the effect of the real estate bubble: a house price index for Bilbao," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013, chapter 15, pages 127-156, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. W. Brunauer & S. Lang & P. Wechselberger & S. Bienert, 2010. "Additive Hedonic Regression Models with Spatial Scaling Factors: An Application for Rents in Vienna," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 390-411, November.
    3. Greiner, Alfred & Kauermann, Goran, 2007. "Sustainability of US public debt: Estimating smoothing spline regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 350-364, March.
    4. Alfred Greiner, 2009. "Estimating penalized spline regressions: theory and application to economics," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1831-1835.
    5. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, September.
    6. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    7. David Dale-Johnson & Christian L. Redfearn & W. Jan Brzeski, 2005. "From Central Planning to Centrality: Krakow's Land Prices After Poland's Big Bang," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 269-297, June.
    8. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brzezicka Justyna, 2022. "The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 84-98, March.
    2. Krzysztof Olszewski & Robert Leszczyński, 2013. "Panel analysis of home prices in the primary and secondary market in 17 largest cities in Poland," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013, chapter 12, pages 39-71, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Doszyń Mariusz, 2020. "Econometric Support of a Mass Valuation Process," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 81-94, June.
    4. Marcelo Cajias, 2017. "Is there room for another hedonic model? –The advantages of the GAMLSS approach in real estate research," ERES eres2017_226, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hedonic price indices; housing prices; spatial influence on prices; geographically weighted regression; penalized splines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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