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Modelling private land-use decisions affecting forest cover: the effect of land tenure and environmental policy

Author

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  • Levente Timar

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

I use geographic data and discrete choice modelling to investigate private land-use decisions in the context of prominent New Zealand land institutions and environmental policies. Land-use conversions involving gains and losses in planted forests and natural forests are modelled individually. Land under M?ori freehold tenure is found to be less likely to be used for pastoral grazing and also less likely to undergo land-use conversion (both to and from a forested use). With respect to environmental policies, results suggest the incentives of the Emissions Trading Scheme did not significantly affect land-use decisions during the sample period of 2008-2016: the carbon reward had little effect on afforestation, and the deforestation liability was largely ineffective at deterring deforestation. On the other hand, the East Coast Forestry Project is found to have increased planted forest area in the district both by encouraging afforestation beyond baseline levels and by discouraging deforestation. Evidence for its effect on regenerating natural forest area is weaker in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Levente Timar, 2022. "Modelling private land-use decisions affecting forest cover: the effect of land tenure and environmental policy," Working Papers 22_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:22_12
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    File URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/22_12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Carver & Patrick Dawson & Suzi Kerr, 2017. "Including Forestry in an Emissions Trading Scheme: Lessons from New Zealand," Working Papers 17_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Nancy E. Bockstael, 1996. "Modeling Economics and Ecology: The Importance of a Spatial Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1168-1180.
    3. Chomitz, Kenneth M & Gray, David A, 1996. "Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 487-512, September.
    4. Zack Dorner & Dean Hyslop, 2014. "Modelling Changing Rural Land Use in New Zealand 1997 to 2008 Using a Multinomial Logit Approach," Working Papers 14_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use; forestry; land tenure; environmental policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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