IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtl/montec/16-2009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?

Author

Listed:
  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

This paper reports graphical and statistical evidence that the inflation targeting regimes in Canada and the UK - but not in Australia, New Zealand, or Sweden - actually resemble price-level targeting. In particular, the price level closely tracks the path implied by the inflation target, and the time-series predictions of the "bygones-are-bygones" version of inflation targeting are rejected by the data in favor of those implied by price-level targeting. These results indicate heterogeneity in the actual application of inflation targeting across countries and, for Canada and the UK, imply that the characterization of inflation targeting as a policy where shocks are accommodated is at odds with the data. Moreover, up to extent that their current policies already resemble price-level targeting, the welfare gains of replacing inflation with (explicit) price-level targeting are likely to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2009. "Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?," Cahiers de recherche 16-2009, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:16-2009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cireqmontreal.com/wp-content/uploads/cahiers/16-2009-cah.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    2. Ball, Laurence & Gregory Mankiw, N. & Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Monetary policy for inattentive economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 703-725, May.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Ondra Kamenik & Heesun Kiem & Vladimir Klyuev & Douglas Laxton, 2013. "Why Is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 71-85, February.
    5. Wolman, Alexander L, 2005. "Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 273-296, April.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    8. repec:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:0:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
    10. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    12. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    13. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
    14. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-295, August.
    15. Stephen Murchison, 2010. "Price-Level Targeting and Relative-Price Shocks," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Summer), pages 11-21.
    16. Vestin, David, 2006. "Price-level versus inflation targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1361-1376, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : A speech at \"Fed Policy: A Shadow Review\" Cato Institute’s 37th Annual Monetary Conferenc," Speech 1104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Eurilton Araújo & Débora Gouveia, 2013. "Calvo-type rules and the forward-looking behavior of inflation targeting central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2042-2051.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193, February.
    4. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech the 2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the Un," Speech 1038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Communication for Multi-Taskers: Perspectives on Dealing with Both Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Paper series 04_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Carl E. Walshn, 2016. "Goals versus Rules as Central Bank Preformance Measures," Book Chapters, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    7. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    8. Glenn D. Otto & Graham M. Voss, 2014. "Flexible inflation forecast targeting: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 398-421, May.
    9. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at “A Hot Economy: Sustainability and Trade-Offs,” a Fed Listens event sponsored by the Fede," Speech 1085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Angelo Melino, 2011. "Moving Monetary Policy Forward: Why Small Steps - and a Lower Inflation Target - Make Sense for the Bank of Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 319, January.
    11. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2013. "Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.
    13. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    14. Jiri Bohm & Jan Filacek, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting–A Real Alternative to Inflation Targeting?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 2-26, February.
    15. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices, a speech at \"The Bank of Finland Conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU [Economic and M," Speech 1075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at the \"Fed Listens: Distributional Consequences of the Cycle and Monetary Policy\&quo," Speech 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Graham M. Voss & M. Chaban, 2012. "National and Provincial Inflation in Canada: Experiences under Inflation Targeting," Department Discussion Papers 1201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    18. Hess T. Chung & Brian M. Doyle & James Hebden & Michael Siemer, 2020. "Considerations Regarding Inflation Ranges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiri Bohm & Jan Filacek, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting–A Real Alternative to Inflation Targeting?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 2-26, February.
    2. Bokor, László, 2007. "Optimality criteria of hybrid inflation-price level targeting," MPRA Paper 10278, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2008.
    3. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    5. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:809-823 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting – A Viable Alternative To Inflation Targeting?," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 809-823, December.
    7. Steve Ambler, 2009. "Price‐Level Targeting And Stabilisation Policy: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 974-997, December.
    8. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Gerberding, Christina & Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix, 2012. "Price-level targeting when there is price-level drift," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 757-768.
    10. Mele, Antonio & Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2020. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 339-353.
    11. Vítor Gaspar, 2007. "Is Time Ripe for Price Level Path Stability?," Working Papers w200719, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Gerberding, Christina & Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix, 2010. "Price-level targeting when there is price-level drift," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    14. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Dib, Ali & Mendicino, Caterina & Zhang, Yahong, 2013. "Price-level targeting rules and financial shocks: The case of Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 941-953.
    17. Cole, Stephen J., 2018. "The effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 146-161.
    18. Nestor Azcona, 2018. "Can Price-Level Targeting Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 400-436, June.
    19. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Price level targeting under fiscal dominance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Giannoni, Marc P., 2014. "Optimal interest-rate rules and inflation stabilization versus price-level stabilization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-129.
    21. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 9968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation-targeting; price-level targeting; unit-root tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:16-2009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sharon BREWER (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdmtlca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.