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Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models

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  • Heather M. Anderson
  • Chin Nam Low

Abstract

This paper extends the family of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models by proposing a specification in which the autoregressive parameters follow random walks. The random walks in the parameters can capture structural change within a regime switching framework, but in contrast to the time varying STAR (TV-STAR) speciifcation recently introduced by Lundbergh et al (2003), structural change in our random walk STAR (RW-STAR) setting follows a stochastic process rather than a deterministic function of time. We suggest tests for RW-STAR behaviour and study the performance of RW-STARmodels in an empirical setting. The out-of sample forecasting performance of our RW-STAR models is encouraging - better than AR, LSTAR and TV-STAR specifications with respect to point forecasts and on a par with TV-STAR speciÞcations with respect to forecast density evaluations.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2004. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2004-22
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2004/wp22-04.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, May 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    2. Chew Lian Chua & Chin Nam Low, 2007. "Permanent Structural Change in the US Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast density evaluation; Non-constant parameters; Random walk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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