Do People Make Decisions Under Risk Based on Ignorance? An Empirical Test of the Priority Heuristic against Cumulative Prospect Theory
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Lohse, Gerald L. & Johnson, Eric J., 1996. "A Comparison of Two Process Tracing Methods for Choice Tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 28-43, October.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Newell, Ben R. & Weston, Nicola J. & Shanks, David R., 2003. "Empirical tests of a fast-and-frugal heuristic: Not everyone "takes-the-best"," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 82-96, May.
- Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
- Glimcher, Paul W. & Dorris, Michael C. & Bayer, Hannah M., 2005. "Physiological utility theory and the neuroeconomics of choice," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 213-256, August.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Michael H. Birnbaum & Jeffrey P. Bahra, 2012. "Separating response variability from structural inconsistency to test models of risky decision making," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(4), pages 402-426, July.
- Stephen B. Broomell & Budescu, David V. & Han-Hui Por, 2011. "Pair-wise comparisons of multiple models," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 821-831, December.
- Pieterse, Arwen H. & de Vries, Marieke & Kunneman, Marleen & Stiggelbout, Anne M. & Feldman-Stewart, Deb, 2013. "Theory-informed design of values clarification methods: A cognitive psychological perspective on patient health-related decision making," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 156-163.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:821-831 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:5:p:524-567 is not listed on IDEAS
- Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023.
"Weeding out the dealers? The economics of cannabis legalization,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 62-101.
- Emmanuelle Auriol & Alice Mesnard & Tiffanie Perrault, 2020. "Weeding out the Dealers? The Economics of Cannabis Legalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 8645, CESifo.
- Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Weeding out the Dealers? The Economics of Cannabis Legalization," TSE Working Papers 23-1475, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Emmanuelle Auriol & Alice Mesnard & Tiffanie Perrault, 2023. "Weeding out the Dealers? The Economics of Cannabis Legalization," Post-Print hal-04234940, HAL.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:800-813 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alexander Morell & Andreas Glöckner & Emanuel Towfigh, 2009. "Sticky Rebates: Rollback Rebates Induce Non-Rational Loyalty in Consumers," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2009_23, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, revised Feb 2013.
- Nathaniel J. S. Ashby & Stephan Dickert & Andreas Glockner, 2012. "Focusing on what you own: Biased information uptake due to ownership," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(3), pages 254-267, May.
- Kim Kaivanto, 2014.
"The Effect of Decentralized Behavioral Decision Making on System‐Level Risk,"
Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(12), pages 2121-2142, December.
- Kaivanto, Kim, 2014. "The effect of decentralized behavioral decision making on system-level risk," MPRA Paper 65972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andreas Glockner & Benjamin E. Hilbig, 2011. "Editorial: Methodology in judgment and decision making research," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 705-710, December.
- Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2019. "Defeating Crime? An Economic Analysis of Cannabis Legalization Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 13814, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Charles-Cadogan, G., 2018. "Losses loom larger than gains and reference dependent preferences in Bernoulli’s utility function," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 220-237.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:3:p:254-267 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ivan Moscati, 2022. "Behavioral and heuristic models are as-if models too — and that’s ok," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22177, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Andreas Glöckner & Tilmann Betsch, 2008. "Multiple-Reason Decision Making Based on Automatic Processing," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_12, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:759-770 is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael H. Birnbaum & Jeffrey P. Bahra, 2012. "Testing transitivity of preferences using linked designs," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(5), pages 524-567, September.
- Tomasz Potocki, 2012. "Cumulative Prospect Theory as a model of economic rationality," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 31.
- Glenn W. Harrison & J. Todd Swarthout, 2016. "Cumulative Prospect Theory in the Laboratory: A Reconsideration," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2016-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:705-710 is not listed on IDEAS
- Clintin P. Davis-Stober & Nicholas Brown, 2011. "A shift in strategy or "error"? Strategy classification over multiple stochastic specifications," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 800-813, December.
- Venkatraman, Vinod & Payne, John W. & Huettel, Scott A., 2014. "An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 73-87.
- John R. Doyle & Catherine H. Chen & Krishna Savani, 2011. "New designs for research in delay discounting," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 759-770, December.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:4:p:402-426 is not listed on IDEAS
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Glöckner, Andreas & Betsch, Tilmann, 2008. "Do people make decisions under risk based on ignorance? An empirical test of the priority heuristic against cumulative prospect theory," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 75-95, September.
- Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
- Francesco GUALA, 2017. "Preferences: Neither Behavioural nor Mental," Departmental Working Papers 2017-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
- Stefano DellaVigna, 2009.
"Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
- Stefano DellaVigna, 2007. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 13420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leković Milјan, 2020. "Cognitive Biases as an Integral Part of Behavioral Finance," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(1), pages 75-96, March.
- Thomas J. Brennan & Andrew W. Lo & Ruixun Zhang, 2018. "Variety Is the Spice of Life: Irrational Behavior as Adaptation to Stochastic Environments," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-39, September.
- Schunk, Daniel, 2009. "Behavioral heterogeneity in dynamic search situations: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1719-1738, September.
- Tian, Ye & Li, Yudi & Sun, Jian, 2022. "Stick or carrot for traffic demand management? Evidence from experimental economics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 235-254.
- Ng, Yew-Kwang & Wang, Jianguo, 2001. "Attitude choice, economic change, and welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 279-291, July.
- Ji, Xiangfeng & Chu, Yanyu, 2020. "A target-oriented bi-attribute user equilibrium model with travelers’ perception errors on the tolled traffic network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
- Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010.
"Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs' and non-entrepreneurs' disinvestment choices,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 30-44, October.
- Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs’ and non-entrepreneurs’ disinvestment choices," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 59518, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Serena Sandri & Christian Schade & Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening, 2010. "Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs' and non-entrepreneurs' disinvestment choices," Post-Print hal-00856602, HAL.
- Shi, Hai-Liu & Chen, Sheng-Qun & Chen, Lei & Wang, Ying-Ming, 2021. "A neutral cross-efficiency evaluation method based on interval reference points in consideration of bounded rational behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1098-1110.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:115-125 is not listed on IDEAS
- Yang, Luhe & Zhang, Lianzhong & Yang, Duoxing, 2022. "Asymmetric micro-dynamics in spatial anonymous public goods game," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
- Jan B Engelmann & C Monica Capra & Charles Noussair & Gregory S Berns, 2009. "Expert Financial Advice Neurobiologically “Offloads” Financial Decision-Making under Risk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, March.
- Enrico G. De Giorgi & David B. Brown & Melvyn Sim, 2010. "Dual representation of choice and aspirational preferences," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 2010-07, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:6:p:1324-1369 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard, 2009. "Risk in a Simple Temporal Framework for Expected Utility Theory and for SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 27/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
- F. Knobloch & J. -F. Mercure, 2016. "The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents," Papers 1603.06888, arXiv.org.
- Ralf Elbert & Lowis Seikowsky, 2017. "The influences of behavioral biases, barriers and facilitators on the willingness of forwarders’ decision makers to modal shift from unimodal road freight transport to intermodal road–rail freight tra," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(8), pages 1083-1123, November.
- Torgler, Benno, 2006.
"The importance of faith: Tax morale and religiosity,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 81-109, September.
- Benno Torgler, 2003. "The Importance of Faith: Tax Morale and Religiosity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2003-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Zamri Ahmad & Haslindar Ibrahim & Jasman Tuyon, 2017. "Institutional investor behavioral biases: syntheses of theory and evidence," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(5), pages 578-603, May.
More about this item
Keywords
Decision Strategy; Fast and Frugal Heuristics; Bounded Rationality; Decision Latency; Process Tracing; Cumulative Prospect Theory;All these keywords.
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2008-03-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CBE-2008-03-15 (Cognitive and Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-UPT-2008-03-15 (Utility Models and Prospect Theory)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2008_5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marc Martin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mppggde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.