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Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Kaustav Das

    (University of Leicester)

  • Atisha Ghosh

    (University of Warwick)

  • Pushkar Maitra

    (Monash University)

Abstract

Do voters react to shocks that are beyond the control of politicians? We consider the case of the assassination of a senior politician in India, in the middle of an election. We find that Congress(I), the party of the assassinated leader, gained significantly from this event through increased vote shares and improved likelihood of victory. Sympathy towards Congress(I) and changed perceptions about governing abilities of the contesting parties in the post-assassination environment played crucial roles in determining the final outcomes of the election. Our results imply that even in environments where voters are expected to make their decisions based on prior performance of parties, an unanticipated, random, exogenous event can affect voting behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2024. "Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 145-179, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:201:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-024-01162-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01162-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exogeneous shocks; Assassination; Election outcomes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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