Une approche non probabiliste d'analyse de la dynamique multidimensionnelle du bien-être. Pauvreté, vulnérabilité et exclusion

Based on Amartya Sen's capability approach, this study first built non probabilist theoretical framework of analysis of multidimensional dynamic of welfare taking the interactions between its different components into account. Then, it developed theoretical analyses based on this framework before to propose a method of empirical application of this model on a panel with two observations. Theoretical analyses of the dynamic of welfare – by step diagram method – point out the importance of such dynamic analysis. Indeed, from two instances, on the one hand, these analyses show that the combination of the structural policies which aim at to develop opportunities or to facilitate their access and the policies which aim at to increase households capabilities would rapidly lead to sensitive poverty reduction. On the other hand, these analyses point out that the efficiency of an anti-poverty policy depends on the nature of the dynamic of welfare. One anti-poverty policy which revealed itself effective in one locality can be ineffective in an other one, if the dynamics of welfare in both localities have not same nature. An implementation of this dynamic model on a panel with two observations enables to apprehend (i) multidimensional vulnerability of each household and the degree of this vulnerability, (ii) discriminating of welfare dynamic according to gender, social class, ethnic group, locality and so on, (iii) social factors – discrimination, social and legal norms and so on – which are constraints to a positive dynamic of welfare, (iv) importance of each component of potentialities into multidimensional dynamic of well-being. For a given population, the application of this dynamic model successively on different panels corresponding to different periods permits to apprehend the evolution (on time) of (i) difficulties or facilities of households or some specifics groups access to opportunities and (ii) social constraints which hang over dynamic of welfare. That allows to know if structural policies are making in the sense of a progressive insertion of poor. Thus, this framework can enable to apprehend dynamic of well-being of a population into several aspects. However, valuations of this method require high quality of database about relatively important number of households. In the contrary case, the robustness of results is not guaranteed.(Full text in French)