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On the financial connectedness of the commodity market: a replication of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study

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  • Francesco Caloia
  • Andrea Cipollini
  • Silvia Muzzioli

Abstract

In this paper we replicate the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study on the connectedness of the Commodity market and three other financial markets: the stock market, the bond market, and the FX market. We show that both the row and the column normalization schemes of the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, suggested by the authors, lead to inaccurate measures of net contribution to risk transmission, in terms of ranking and sign. We show that, considering data generating processes characterized by different degrees of comovement and persistence, a scalar based normalization of the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition yields consistent (free of sign and ranking errors) net spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Caloia & Andrea Cipollini & Silvia Muzzioli, 2018. "On the financial connectedness of the commodity market: a replication of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study," Department of Economics 0131, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0131
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "Networks in risk spillovers: A multivariate GARCH perspective," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-29.
    4. Stefan Klößner & Sven Wagner, 2014. "Exploring All Var Orderings For Calculating Spillovers? Yes, We Can!—A Note On Diebold And Yilmaz (2009)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 172-179, January.
    5. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2010. "Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 53-67, July.
    6. Massimiliano Caporin & Paolo Paruolo, 2015. "Proximity-Structured Multivariate Volatility Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 559-593, May.
    7. Caloia, Francesco Giuseppe & Cipollini, Andrea & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2018. "Asymmetric semi-volatility spillover effects in EMU stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 221-230.
    8. Keiler, Sebastian & Eder, Armin, 2013. "CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach," Discussion Papers 01/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    10. Matthias R. Fengler & Helmut Herwartz, 2018. "Measuring Spot Variance Spillovers when (Co)variances are Time†varying – The Case of Multivariate GARCH Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(1), pages 135-159, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    causality; normalization schemes; generalized forecast error variance decomposition; spillover; simulation; Vector Autoregression Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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