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Limited backward induction: foresight and behavior in sequential games

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  • Marco Mantovani

Abstract

The paper tests experimentally for limited foresight in sequential games. We develop a general out-of-equilibrium framework of strategic thinking based on limited foresight. It assumes the players take decisions focusing on close-by nodes, following backward induction – what we call limited backward induction (LBI). The main prediction of the model is tested in the context of a modified Game of 21. In line with the theoretical hypotheses, our results show most players think strategically only on close-by nodes without reasoning backwards from the end of the game. A small fraction of subjects play close to equilibrium, while few others try to exploit the limited foresight of their opponent. The results provide strong support for LBI, and cannot be accounted for using the most popular models of strategic thinking, let alone equilibrium analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Mantovani, 2015. "Limited backward induction: foresight and behavior in sequential games," Working Papers 289, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:289
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dufwenberg, Martin & Van Essen, Matt, 2018. "King of the Hill: Giving backward induction its best shot," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 125-138.
    2. Kirchsteiger, Georg & Mantovani, Marco & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2016. "Limited farsightedness in network formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 97-120.
    3. Buser, Thomas & van den Assem, Martijn J. & van Dolder, Dennie, 2023. "Gender and willingness to compete for high stakes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 350-370.
    4. Matthew Embrey & Guillaume R Fréchette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2018. "Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 509-551.
    5. Ulrich Bergmann & Arkady Konovalov, 2024. "Auction design and order of sale with budget-constrained bidders," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(1), pages 36-57, March.
    6. Ke, Shaowei, 2019. "Boundedly rational backward induction," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral game theory; sequential games; strategic thinking; level-k; limited foresight.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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