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Hochrechnungsmethoden und Szenarien für gesetzliche und private Renteninformationen

Author

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  • Börsch-Supan, Axel
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Reil-Held, Anette

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Die gesetzliche Rente als erste Säule der Alterssicherung wird besonders wegen des demographischen Wandels künftig weniger großzügig ausfallen als bisher. Die entstehende Versorgungslücke soll durch die zweite und dritte Säule der Alterssicherung gefüllt werden. Um dieser Eigenverantwortung erfolgreich gerecht zu werden, ist für den Einzelnen eine verlässliche Planungsgrundlage notwendig. Ausreichende Informationen über die Höhe der künftigen Rentenzahlungen aus allen Säulen der Altersvorsorge sind daher unabdingbar. Dieser Beitrag stellt verschiedene Darstellungsmöglichkeiten künftiger Rentenzahlungen und die zur Hochrechnung erforderlichen Annahmen vor. Wir gehen von einer durchschnittlichen Inflationsrate von 1,5% sowie einer durchschnittlichen realen Lohnwachstumsrate von maximal 1,5% aus. Letztere resultiert aus Berechnungen im Rahmen eines gesamtwirtschaftlichen Simulationsmodells. Dieses Modell zeigt auch, dass die kapitalgedeckte Säule der Alterssicherung nicht immun gegen die Bevölkerungsalterung ist, aber auch nicht in ihrer Substanz von einem Kapitalmarktcrash (dem so genannten "Asset Meltdown") bedroht ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Reil-Held, Anette, 2004. "Hochrechnungsmethoden und Szenarien für gesetzliche und private Renteninformationen," MEA discussion paper series 04049, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:04049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lothar Essig & Anette Reil-Held, 2003. "Chancen und Risiken der "Riester-Renter"," MEA discussion paper series 03035, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Axel H. Boersch-Supan & Joachim K. Winter, 2001. "Population Aging, Savings Behavior and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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    Cited by:

    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," MEA discussion paper series 05085, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-19, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    3. Christina Benita Wilke, 2004. "Ein Simulationsmodell des Rentenversicherungssystems: Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen von MEA-PENSIM," MEA discussion paper series 04048, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

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