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Lending Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Hafemann

    (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen)

  • Peter Tillmann

    (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen)

Abstract

The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is widely considered a good indicator of banks' lending conditions. We use the change in corporate bond spreads on SLOOS release days to instrument changes in lending standards. A series of estimated IV local projections shows that lending standards have highly significant effects on macroeconomic and financial variables. A relaxation of standards expands economic activity and eases financial conditions. We then use the change in spreads and the change in the VIX index on release days to identify a pure credit supply shock and a risk-taking shock using sign restrictions in a Bayesian VAR model. We find that an easing in lending has different consequences for both types of shocks. While the VIX, the excess bond premium and stock prices decrease after a pure credit supply shock, they increase after a risk-taking shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2021. "Lending Standards and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Loan Survey Releases," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202131, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202131
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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2021-papers/31-2021_hafemann.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    loan survey; credit supply; risk-taking; instrumental variable local projections; shock identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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