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Communication Matters: U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Price Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Ali M. Kutan

    (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville; The Emerging Markets Group, London; William Davidson Institute, Michigan)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

Using a GARCH model, we analyze the influence of U.S. monetary policy action and communication on the price volatility of commodities for the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that U.S. monetary policy events have an economically significant impact on price volatility. Second, expected target rate changes and communications decrease volatility, whereas target rate surprises and unorthodox monetary policy measures increase it. Third, we find a change in reaction to central bank communication during the recent financial crisis: the “calming” effect of communication found for the whole sample is partly offset during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Communication Matters: U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Price Volatility," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201105, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201105
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    2. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2008. "Financial Market Reaction to Federal Reserve Communications: Does the Crisis Make a Difference?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200808, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-438, November.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Communication; Commodities; Federal Reserve Bank; Monetary Policy; Price Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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