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Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices – A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Bordon, Ingo G.
  • Hendricks, Torben W.

Abstract

This paper examines the interactions between money, consumer prices and commodity prices at a global level from 1970 to 2008. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries and a cointegrating VAR framework, we are able to establish long run and short run relationships among these variables while the process is mainly driven by global liquidity. According to our empirical findings, different price elasticities in commodity and consumer goods markets can explain the recently observed overshooting of commodity over consumer prices. Although the sample period is rather long, recursive tests corroborate that our CVAR fits the data very well.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Hendricks, Torben W., 2009. "Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices – A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 102, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:102
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; cointegration; CVAR analysis; global liquidity; inflation; international spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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