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Severity of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India

Author

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  • Katsushi S. Imai
  • Nidhi Kaicker
  • Raghav Gaiha

Abstract

This is one of the first econometric analyses of severity of COVID-19 pandemic in India measured using two related but distinct measures of mortality up to 31 October 2020 based on the Cumulative Severity Ratio (CSR). The CSR measures the additional pressure on our fragile and ill-equipped healthcare system, while its first difference helps monitor the progression of fatalities. These measures are supplemented by a measure of infection cases. Another important contribution of this analysis is the use of rigorous econometric methodologies drawing upon random effects models and Tobit models for the weekly panel of 32 states/union territories. Although the rationales vary, they yield a large core of robust results. The specifications are rich and comprehensive despite heavy data constraints. The factors associated with the CSR and infection cases include income, gender, multi-morbidity, urbanisation, lockdown and unlock phases, weather including temperature and rainfall, and the retail price of wheat. Given the paucity of rigorous econometric analyses, our study yields policy insights of considerable significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsushi S. Imai & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha, 2020. "Severity of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2016, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wendy Olsen & Manasi Bera & Amaresh Dubey & Jihye Kim & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Purva Yadav, 2020. "Hierarchical Modelling of COVID-19 Death Risk in India in the Early Phase of the Pandemic," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1476-1503, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katsushi S. Imai & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha, 2020. "The Covid-19 Impact on Agricultural Market Arrivals and Prices in India: A Panel VAR Approach," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2010, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Katsushi S. Imai & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha, 2020. "The Covid-19 Impact on Agricultural Prices in India," Discussion Paper Series DP2020-25, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Dec 2020.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N35 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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