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A New Approach to Construct Core Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Sartaj Rasool Rather

    (Madras School of Economics)

  • S. Raja Sethu Durai

    (Department of Economics, Pondicherry University, Puducherry)

  • M. Ramachandran

    (Department of Economics, Pondicherry University, Puducherry)

Abstract

We propose a new methodology to construct core inflation which is, unlike other conventional methods, not based on ad hoc elimination/trimming of prices. The underlying inflation derived from our method is found to be a powerful leading indicator of headline inflation while other conventional measures do not seem to reflect such fundamental property of core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sartaj Rasool Rather & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2014. "A New Approach to Construct Core Inflation," Working Papers 2014-091, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    • Handle: RePEc:mad:wpaper:2014-091
    as

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    File URL: http://www.mse.ac.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/working-paper-91.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
    2. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
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    4. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2013. "Core Measures of Inflation as Predictors of Total Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 505-519, March.
    5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:505-519 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    8. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "A statistical measure of core inflation," MPRA Paper 11362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ribba, Antonio, 2003. "Permanent-transitory decompositions and traditional measures of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 109-116, October.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Core inflation; Skewness; Leading indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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