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Evaluating core inflation indicators

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  • Robalo Marques, Carlos
  • Duarte Neves, Pedro
  • Morais Sarmento, Luis

Abstract

This paper proposes testable conditions that core inflation measures should satisfy. Trend inflation indicators calculated by Banco de Portugal are tested against this background. The major conclusion is that the so-called “underlying inflation”, the “10% trimmed mean”, and the “25% trimmed mean” do not meet the proposed conditions. However, they are satisfied by the “37-month centred moving average”, the “first principal component” and the “standard deviation weighted CPI” indicators. Yet, only the last two indicators can be used as useful core inflation measures, as the first one is not computable in real time.
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Suggested Citation

  • Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:20:y:2003:i:4:p:765-775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. דר אברהם כרמלי & גב נעמה שמיר וגב לילי יצחקי, 1999. "מתחברים לנוער מנותק," Working Papers 191, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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