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Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty inthe Philippines: a CGE Analysis

Author

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  • Caesar B. Cororaton
  • John Cockburn
  • Erwin Corong

Abstract

Since the early 1980s, the Philippines have undertaken substantial trade reform. The current Doha round of WTO negotiations is now likely to bring further reform and shocks to world import and export prices and world export demand. The impact of all these developments on the poor is not very clear and is the subject of very intense debate. A detailed economy-wide CGE model is used to run a series of policy experiments. Poverty is found to increase slightly with the implementation of the Doha scenario. These effects are focused primarily among rural households in the wake of falling world prices and demand for Philippines agricultural exports. The impacts of full liberalization involving free world trade and complete domestic liberalization are found to depend strongly on the mechanism the government adopts to offset forgone tariff revenue. If an indirect tax is used, the incidence of poverty falls marginally, but the depth (poverty gap) and severity (squared poverty gap) increase substantially. If, instead, an income tax is used, all measures of poverty increase. In both cases, full liberalization favors urban households, as exports, which are primarily non-agricultural, expand. In separate simulations, we discover that free world trade is poverty reducing and favors rural households, whereas domestic liberalization is poverty-increasing and favors urban households. Under free world trade, rural households benefit from increasing world agricultural export prices and demand. The anti-rural bias of domestic liberalization stems from the fact that import prices fall more for agricultural goods than for industrial goods, as initial import-weighted average tariffs rates are higher for the former. In conclusion, the current Doha agreement appears likely to slightly increase poverty, especially in rural areas and among the unemployed, self-employed and rural low-educated. The Philippines is found to have an interest in pushing for more ambitious world trade liberalization, as free world trade holds out promise for reducing poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Caesar B. Cororaton & John Cockburn & Erwin Corong, 2005. "Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty inthe Philippines: a CGE Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2005-03, PEP-MPIA.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2005-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 2008-01, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    2. Roehlano Briones, 2015. "Impact assessment of national and regional policies using the Philippine Regional General Equilibrium model," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 45-76, June.
    3. Adugna Lemi, 2012. "Trade Liberalization and Change in Poverty Status in Rural Ethiopia: What are the Links?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 609-633, August.
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3757, The World Bank.
    5. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Senesouphap, Chanthachonh & Yawdhacksa, Somnack, 2012. "Resource Boom, Growth and Poverty in Laos: what can we learn from other countries and policy simulations?," PEP Policy Briefs 161661, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    6. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(01).
    7. Rina Oktaviani & Eka Puspitawati & Haryadi, 2008. "Impacts of ASEAN Agricultural Trade Liberalization on ASEAN-6 Economies and Income Distribution in Indonesia," Working Papers 5108, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    8. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Corong, Erwin L. & Cockburn, John, 2009. "Agricultural Price Distortions, Poverty and Inequality in the Philippines," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52790, World Bank.
    9. Briones, Roehlano M., 2009. "Impact Assessment of National and Regional Policies Using the Philippine Regional General Equilibrium Model (PRGEM)," Discussion Papers DP 2009-03, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Roehlano M. Briones, 2009. "Impact Assessment of National and Regional Policies Using the Philippine Regional General Equilibrium Model," Development Economics Working Papers 22617, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. John Asafu‐Adjaye & Renuka Mahadevan, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements versus Global Trade Liberalisation: Implications for a Small Island Developing State," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 509-529, March.
    12. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2006. "Philippine rice and rural poverty: an impact analysis of market reform using CGE," MTID discussion papers 96, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. U-Primo E. Rodriguez, 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22694, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Lindsay Shutes & Marijke Kuiper, 2015. "Expanding the household coverage of global simulation models: an application to Ghana," FOODSECURE Technical papers 3, LEI Wageningen UR.
    15. Shutes, Lindsay & Ganesh-Kumar, Anand & Meijerink, Gerdien W., 2012. "Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India," MPRA Paper 40982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Siddiqui, Rizwana, 2006. "Welfare and Poverty Implications of Global Rice and Agricultural Trade Liberalisation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 90194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    17. Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2009. "FiFoSiM - an integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model for Germany," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    18. Medalla, Erlinda M. & Balboa, Jenny D., 2007. "The Impact of ASEAN-China FTA Early Harvest Program: the Case of the Philippines with Focus on Short-run Effects on the Agriculture Sector," Research Paper Series RPS 2007-01, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    19. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty in the Asia-Pacific region: a survey and some new results," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 15(1), pages 1-34, June.
    20. Kenneth Reinert, 2007. "The European Union, the Doha Round, and Asia," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 317-330, September.
    21. Hewitt, Joanna, 2008. "Impact evaluation of research by the International Food Policy Research Institute on agricultural trade liberalization, developing countries, and WTO's Doha negotiations:," Impact assessments 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    22. Briones, Roehlano M. & David, Cristina C. & Inocencio, Arlene B. & Intal, Ponciano Jr. S. & Geron, Maria Piedad S. & Ballesteros, Marife M., 2012. "Monitoring and Evaluation of Agricultural Policy Indicators," Discussion Papers DP 2012-26, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    23. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2008-20, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium; Microsimulation; Poverty; International Trade; Philippines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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