IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/40982.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India

Author

Listed:
  • Shutes, Lindsay
  • Ganesh-Kumar, Anand
  • Meijerink, Gerdien W.

Abstract

The general perception is that high food prices in India have increased poverty and that trade reforms will further worsen poverty. We compare Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures for various scenarios of grain price swings with and without trade reform, using price and income effects for 32 representative households computed from a global economic model and a model of India's economy. The results suggest that a rise in the global rice price actually provides strong opportunities for poverty alleviation. Global trade reform reinforces this effect for all rural population groups. An increase in urban poverty partly offsets the overall poverty reduction. While India's trade measures effectively isolate sectors from swings in global markets, they also cause India to miss opportunities to benefit from buoyant global prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Shutes, Lindsay & Ganesh-Kumar, Anand & Meijerink, Gerdien W., 2012. "Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India," MPRA Paper 40982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40982/1/MPRA_paper_40982.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Parikh, Kirit S. & Narayana, N. S. S. & Panda, Manoj & Kumar, A. Ganesh, 1997. "Agricultural trade liberalization: growth, welfare and large country effects," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Ackerman, Karen & MacDonald, Stephen & Milmoe, Steve, 1990. "International Trade," Food Review/ National Food Review, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 13(3), September.
    4. A. Ganesh-Kumar & Manoj K. Panda & Mary E. Burfisher, 2006. "Reforms in Indian agro-processing and agriculture sectors in the context of unilateral and multilateral trade agreements," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2004. "Trade Reform and Poverty in the Philippines: A Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation Analysis," Conference papers 331176, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Dasgupta, Dipak & Dubey, R.N. & Sathish, R, 2011. "Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 31564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 2011. "Has India's Economic Growth Become More Pro-Poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 157-189, February.
    8. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0512, CIRPEE.
    9. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu, 2006. "Does Trade Liberalisation Lead to Poverty Alleviation? a CGE Microsimulation Approach for Zimbabwe," Working Papers MPIA 2006-18, PEP-MPIA.
    10. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Eliisabeth, 2009. "The Impact of Rising Food Prices on Household Welfare in India," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7xj9n1qq, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Papers 9909, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
    12. Caesar B. Cororaton & John Cockburn & Erwin Corong, 2005. "Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty inthe Philippines: a CGE Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2005-03, PEP-MPIA.
    13. Kirit S. Parikh & N.S.S. Narayana & Manoj Panda & A. Ganesh Kumar, 1997. "Agricultural trade liberalization: growth, welfare and large country effects," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, October.
    14. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Fargeix, Andre, 1991. "Politically feasible and equitable adjustment: Some alternatives for ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1577-1594, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lindsay Shutes & Marijke Kuiper, 2015. "Expanding the household coverage of global simulation models: an application to Ghana," FOODSECURE Technical papers 3, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Manoj K. Panda & A. Ganesh Kumar, 2008. "Trade liberalization, poverty and food security in India abstract: This paper attempts to assess the impact of trade," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    4. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200604, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2006.
    5. Nahar, Bodrun & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2009. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47629, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "On the Distributional Effect of Carbon Tax in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200705, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2007.
    7. James B Davies, 2009. "Combining microsimulation with CGE and macro modelling for distributional analysis in developing and transition countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 49-56.
    8. Calvin Z. Djiofack & Eric W. Djimeu & Matthieu Boussichas, 2014. "Editor's choice Impact of Qualified Worker Emigration on Poverty: A Macro–Micro-Simulation Approach for an African Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(1), pages 1-52.
    9. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2008. "The Impact of Developed Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Poverty: A Survey," Working Papers hal-03416399, HAL.
    10. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2007. "Trade reform and poverty--Lessons from the Philippines: A CGE-microsimulation analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163.
    11. Yusuf, Arief Anshory & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 1946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe & Veronique Robichaud, 2007. "Trade liberalization and poverty - lessons from Asia and Africa," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Mia Mikic (ed.), FUTURE TRADE RESEARCH AREAS THAT MATTER TO DEVELOPING COUNTRY POLICYMAKERS, volume 61, chapter 4, pages 103-121, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    13. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Caesar B. Cororaton & Erwin L. Corong, 2006. "Agriculture-sector Policies and Poverty in the Philippines: a Computable General-Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2006-09, PEP-MPIA.
    15. Aykut Mert Yakut & Ebru Voyvoda, 2017. "Intertemporal CGE Analysis of Income Distribution in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 1703, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2017.
    16. Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Different Approaches," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrix: A Very Short Introduction for Economic Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-477, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    18. Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2014. "Fertilizer subsidies and food self-sufficiency in Indonesia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(5), pages 571-588, September.
    19. Pyakuryal, Bishwambher & Roy, Devesh & Thapa, Y.B., 2010. "Trade liberalization and food security in Nepal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 20-31, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; food prices; trade; CGE analysis; India; household analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40982. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.