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Welfare implications of trade sanctions against Russia

Author

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  • Evgenii Monastyrenko

    (DEM, Université du Luxembourg)

  • Pierre M. Picard

    (DEM, Université du Luxembourg)

Abstract

Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have been discussing and then implementing new trade sanctions against Russian fossil fuels. This paper quantifies such policies’ trade and welfare effects using a general equilibrium model with 92 countries and 65 intermediate products and sectoral linkages. The paper breaks down the effects of the bans on gas, crude and refined oil, and coal, and discusses the impact of alternative coalitions of sanctioning countries. In the most stringent case, the model predicts welfare losses of about 16.8% in Russia and 0.42% in the sanctioning countries. These losses are very heterogeneous across sanctioning countries. The OECD countries have an important role as their participation in sanction policies significantly influences expected outcomes in Russia. Meanwhile, should only EU countries implement fossil fuel sanctions, their welfare losses are predicted to be 3.3% on average

Suggested Citation

  • Evgenii Monastyrenko & Pierre M. Picard, 2023. "Welfare implications of trade sanctions against Russia," DEM Discussion Paper Series 23-19, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:23-19
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10993/59915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria S. Lymar & Alexander A. Reentovich & Andrey A. Sinyakov, 2024. "A commodity exporting economy under financial and trade restrictions: Aggregate and structural changes," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(2), pages 103-129, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade shocks; sanctions; welfare outcomes.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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