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Trade and income in the long run: Are there really gains, and are they widely shared?

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  • Diego A. Cerdeiro
  • Andras Komaromi

Abstract

In the cross‐section of countries, there is a strong positive correlation between trade and income, and a negative relationship between trade and inequality. Does this reflect a causal relationship? We revisit the Frankel and Romer (1999) identification strategy, and exploit countries’ exogenous geographic characteristics to estimate the causal effect of trade on income and inequality. Our cross‐country estimates for trade’s impact on real income are consistently positive and significant over time. In addition, we do not find any statistical evidence that more trade increases aggregate measures of income inequality in the long run. A decile‐level decomposition reveals that the positive effect of trade on income decreases monotonically along the income distribution, suggesting that trade integration should be an integral part of long‐run development agendas under any reasonable social welfare function. Addressing previous concerns in the literature, we carefully analyze the validity of our geography‐based instrument, and confirm that the IV estimates for the impact of trade are not driven by other direct or indirect effects of geography through non‐trade channels.

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  • Diego A. Cerdeiro & Andras Komaromi, 2021. "Trade and income in the long run: Are there really gains, and are they widely shared?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 703-731, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:29:y:2021:i:4:p:703-731
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12494
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    1. Valerie Cerra, 2022. "A Framework For Inclusive And Sustainable Growth In Asia And The Pacific," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 29(1), pages 17-41, May.
    2. Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Ms. Valerie Cerra & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2021. "Trade, Jobs, and Inequality," IMF Working Papers 2021/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Syed H. Shah & Muhammad A. Kamal & Da L. Yu, 2022. "Did China‐Pakistan free trade agreement promote trade and development in Pakistan?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3459-3474, July.
    4. Hisham Mohamed Hassan & Sonal Devesh & Omer Ali Ibrahim, 2022. "The Importance of Trade Openness and Inflation for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment in GCC Countries," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 17-40.
    5. Shuguang Liu & Xiaowen Tang & Yubin Zhao, 2024. "Global Value Chain Participation, Employment Structure, and Urban–Rural Income Gap in the Context of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, February.

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