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An Experimental Test of Precautionary Bidding

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  • Kocher, Martin G.
  • Pahlke, Julius
  • Trautmann, Stefan T.

Abstract

Auctions often involve goods exhibiting a common knowledge ex-post risk that is independent of buyers’ private values or their signals regarding common value components. Esö and White (2004) showed theoretically that ex-post risk leads to precautionary bidding for DARA bidders: Agents reduce their bids by more than their appropriate risk premium. Testing precautionary bidding with data from the field seems almost impossible. We conduct experimental first-price auctions that allow us to directly identify the precautionary premium and find clear evidence for precautionary bidding. Bidders are significantly better off when a risky object rather than an equally valued sure object is auctioned. Our results are robust if we control for potentially confounding decision biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Kocher, Martin G. & Pahlke, Julius & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2010. "An Experimental Test of Precautionary Bidding," Discussion Papers in Economics 11743, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:11743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    precautionary bidding; prudence; auction; experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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