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Structural Change, Productive Development, and Capital Flows: Does Financial 'Bonanza' Cause Premature Deindustrialization?

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  • Alberto Botta
  • Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  • Gabriel Porcile

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 brought back to the forefront the crucial importance of structural change and productive development for economic resilience to economic shocks. Several recent contributions have already stressed the perverse relationship that may exist between productive backwardness and the intensity of the COVID-19 socioeconomic crisis. In this paper, we analyze the factors that may have hindered productive development for over four decades before the pandemic. We investigate the role of (non-FDI) net capital inflows as a potential source of premature deindustrialization. We consider a sample of 36 developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2017, with major emphasis on the case of emerging and developing economies (EDE) in the context of increasing financial integration. We show that periods of abundant capital inflows may have caused the significant contraction of manufacturing share to employment and GDP, as well as the decrease of the economic complexity index. We also show that phenomena of "perverse" structural change are significantly more relevant in EDE countries than advanced ones. Based on such evidence, we conclude with some policy suggestions highlighting capital controls and external macroprudential measures taming international capital mobility as useful tools for promoting long-run productive development on top of strengthening (short-term) financial and macroeconomic stability.

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  • Alberto Botta & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima & Gabriel Porcile, 2022. "Structural Change, Productive Development, and Capital Flows: Does Financial 'Bonanza' Cause Premature Deindustrialization?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_999, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_999
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    Cited by:

    1. Botta, Alberto & Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano Toshiro, 2023. "Financial integration, productive development and fiscal policy space in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 175-188.
    2. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2022. "Premature Deindustrialization Risk: The Case of Thailand," MPRA Paper 113560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Botta, Alberto & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano & Porcile, Gabriel, 2023. "Pasinetti, Debt Sustainability and (Green) Structural Change at the Time of Global Finance: An Emerging and Developing Countries’ Perspective," CAFE Working Papers 25, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    4. Mbondo, Georges Dieudonné & Bouwawe, Duclo, 2023. "Transformation structurelle des pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire en Afrique Sub-saharienne : quels rôles des flux des capitaux internationaux ? [Structural transformation of low- and middle-in," MPRA Paper 117911, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2023.
    5. João Alcobia & Ricardo Cabral, 2023. "The Dutch disease of the Euro Area peripheral member states," Working Papers REM 2023/0257, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Structural Change; Capital Inflows; Macroprudential Policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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