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Dutch Disease-cum-financialization booms and external balance cycles in developing countries

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  • Alberto Botta

Abstract

We formally investigate the medium-to-long-run dynamics emerging out of a Dutch disease-cum-financialization phenomenon. We take inspiration from the most recent Colombian development pattern. The “pure” Dutch disease first causes deindustrialization by permanently appreciating the economy’s exchange rate in the long run. Financialization, i.e. booming capital inflows taking place in a climate of natural resource-led financial over-optimism, causes medium-run exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic instability. This jeopardizes manufacturing development even further by raising macroeconomic uncertainty. We advise the adoption of capital controls and a developmentalist monetary policy to tackle these two distinct but often intertwined phenomena. JEL Classification: F32; O14; O24.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Botta, 2017. "Dutch Disease-cum-financialization booms and external balance cycles in developing countries," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 37(3), pages 459-477.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:37:y:2017:i:3:p:459-477:id:142
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    2. Alberto Botta & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima & Gabriel Porcile, 2023. "Structural change, productive development, and capital flows: does financial “bonanza” cause premature deindustrialization?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 433-473.
    3. Botta, Alberto & Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano Toshiro, 2023. "Financial integration, productive development and fiscal policy space in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 175-188.
    4. Thomas Goda & Jan Priewe, 2020. "Determinants of real exchange rate movements in 15 emerging market economies," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 40(2), pages 214-237.
    5. Ricardo Barradas & João Alcobia, 2024. "Determinants Of The Portuguese External Imbalances: The Lens Of Post-Keynesian Economics," Working Papers REM 2024/0334, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Botta, Alberto & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano & Porcile, Gabriel, 2023. "Pasinetti, Debt Sustainability and (Green) Structural Change at the Time of Global Finance: An Emerging and Developing Countries’ Perspective," CAFE Working Papers 25, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    7. Lorenzo Nalin & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, 2021. "Commodities fluctuations, cross border flows and financial innovation: A stock‐flow analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 539-579, July.
    8. Kadırgan, Can, 2023. "Exchange rate driven balance sheet effect and capital flows to emerging market economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 35-45.
    9. Lorenzo Nalin & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, 2020. "Balance Sheet Effects of a Currency Devaluation: A Stock-Flow Consistent Framework for Mexico?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_980, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch disease; financialization; exchange rate volatility; developmentalist monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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