IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/wrkpap/wp_840.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of a Euro Exit on Growth, Employment, and Wages

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Realfonzo
  • Angelantonio Viscione

Abstract

A technical analysis shows that the doomsayers who support the euro at all costs and those who naively theorize that a single currency is the root of all evil are both wrong. A euro exit could be a way of getting back to growth, but at the same time it would entail serious risks, especially for wage earners. The most important lesson we can learn from the experience of the past is that the outcome, in terms of growth, distribution, and employment, depends on how a country remains in the euro; or, in the case of a euro exit, on the quality of the economic policies that are put in place once the country regains control of monetary and fiscal matters, rather than on abandoning the old exchange system as such. It all depends on how a country stays in the eurozone, or on how it leaves if need be.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Realfonzo & Angelantonio Viscione, 2015. "The Effects of a Euro Exit on Growth, Employment, and Wages," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_840, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_840.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    2. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2006. "Revisiting the Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Further Evidence from Japan's Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(1), pages 61-75, March.
    3. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    4. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 925-946, December.
    6. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2008. "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(3), pages 479-511, May.
    7. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    9. Sidney S. Alexander, 1952. "Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(2), pages 263-278, April.
    10. Emiliano Brancaccio & Nadia Garbellini, 2015. "Currency regime crises, real wages, functional income distribution and production," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 255-276, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Realfonzo & Angelantonio Viscione, 2015. "The Real Effects of a Euro Exit: Lessons from the Past," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 161-173, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Riccardo Realfonzo & Angelantonio Viscione, 2015. "The Real Effects of a Euro Exit: Lessons from the Past," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 161-173, July.
    2. Emiliano Brancaccio & Nadia Garbellini, 2015. "Currency regime crises, real wages, functional income distribution and production," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 255-276, December.
    3. Köhler, Karsten, 2016. "Currency devaluations, aggregate demand, and debt dynamics in an economy with foreign currency liabilities," IPE Working Papers 78/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Misbah Nosheen & Beenish Chohan & Javed Iqbal & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Asymmetric response of domestic production to exchange rate changes: Evidence from southeast Asian countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 54-75, November.
    5. Stahn, Kerstin, 2009. "Changes in import pricing behaviour: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Stahn Kerstin, 2011. "Changes in Import Pricing Behaviour: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(4), pages 522-545, August.
    7. Ahlem Dahem1 & Fatma Siala Guermazi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in Transition Economy: Evidence from Tunisia with a Disaggregated VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 50-63.
    8. Andrés González & Hernán Rincóm & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación," Borradores de Economia 5089, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Dahem, Ahlem & Siala Guermazi, Fatma, 2016. "Exchange rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in Transition Economy: Evidence from Tunisia with disaggregated VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 74179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andrés González & Hernán Rincón & Norberto Rodríguez, 2008. "La transmisión de los choques a la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación de los bienes importados en presencia de asimetrías," Borradores de Economia 532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "Does Nominal Devaluation Improve Income Distribution? Evidence from Bangladesh," South Asian Survey, , vol. 19(1), pages 61-77, March.
    12. Eike Berner & Laura Birg & Dominik Boddin, 2017. "Retailers and Consumers: The Pass-through of Import Price Changes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1314-1344, July.
    13. Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy & Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of real effective exchange rate changes on domestic output revisited: evidence from Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 2-15.
    14. repec:ilo:ilowps:234932 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Louhichi, Waël, 2016. "Revisiting the role of inflation environment in exchange rate pass-through: A panel threshold approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 233-238.
    16. Rucha R. Ranadive & L.G. Burange, 2015. "Transmission Mechanism of Exchange Rate Pass-through in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(4), pages 263-283, November.
    17. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.
    18. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Mallick, Sushanta & Marques, Helena, 2010. "Data frequency and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from India's exports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 13-22, January.
    21. Chang Shu & Xiaojing Su, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass‐through in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 33-46, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Crisis; Devaluation; Employment; Euro Exit; Eurozone; Growth; Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Dunn (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.levyinstitute.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.