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The Greek Economic Crisis and the Experience of Austerity: A Strategic Analysis

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  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Michalis Nikiforos
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

Employment in Greece is in free fall, with more than one million jobs lost since October 2008--a drop of more than 28 percent. In March, the "official" unemployment rate was 27.4 percent, the highest level seen in any industrialized country in the free world during the last 30 years. In this report, Levy Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Scholars Michalis Nikiforos and Gennaro Zezza analyze the economic crisis in Greece and offer policy recommendations to restore growth and increase employment. This analysis relies on the Levy Institute's macroeconomic model of the Greek economy (LIMG), a stock-flow consistent model similar to the Institute’s model of the US economy. Based on the LIMG simulations, the authors find that a continuation of austerity policies would decrease GDP and increase unemployment. They find recent International Monetary Fund and European Commission projections for the Greek economy overly optimistic, and recommend a recovery strategy, similar to the Marshall Plan, to increase public consumption and investment—a strategy centered on an expanded direct public-service job creation program.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2013. "The Greek Economic Crisis and the Experience of Austerity: A Strategic Analysis," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jul_13, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_jul_13
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    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    2. Romeo-Victor IONESCU, 2015. "Grexit Between Speculation And Truth," Public Administration and Reginal Studies, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Juridical, Social and Political Sciences, issue 1, pages 3-12.
    3. Canelli, Rosa & Fontana, Giuseppe & Realfonzo, Riccardo & Passarella, Marco Veronese, 2024. "Energy crisis, economic growth and public finance in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Heinz Handler, 2013. "Fiskalmultiplikatoren in der Krise," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 86(12), pages 977-984, December.
    5. C.J. Polychroniou, 2013. "A Failure by Any Other Name: The International Bailouts of Greece," Economics Policy Note Archive 13-06, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme Against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment," MPRA Paper 57080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Serafeim POLYZOS & Dimitrios TSIOTAS, 2020. "Measuring Structural Changes Of The Greek Economy During The Period Of Economic Crisis," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(2), pages 5-24, June.
    8. Beshenov, Sergey & Rozmainsky, Ivan, 2015. "Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis and the Greek debt crisis," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 419-438.
    9. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2013. "Rescuing the Recovery: Prospects and Policies for the United States," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_oct_13, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2014. "Is Greece Heading For a Recovery?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_dec_14, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Michalis Nikiforos & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "The Greek Public Debt Problem," Economics Policy Note Archive 15-2, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Rosa Canelli & Riccardo Realfonzo & Francesco Zezza, 2022. "An empirical Stock‐Flow Consistent regional model of Campania," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(1), pages 209-257, February.
    13. Ines Kersan-Škabić, 2016. "Is Internal Devaluation Policy In The Eu Effective?," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(211), pages 29-46, October -.
    14. C Alexiou & J G Nellis, 2016. "A post-mortem of austerity: the Greek experience," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 1-32, September.
    15. John Marangos, 2023. "The Post-Keynesian Perspective and Policy Recommendations for the Greek Financial Crisis," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 423-447, September.
    16. Michaelis Nikiforos, 2018. "Distribution-led growth through methodological lenses," FMM Working Paper 24-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment - Un programma di politica fiscale-monetaria contro l’indebitamento e l’impoverimento della Grecia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 243-261.
    18. Michalis Nikiforos & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "The Greek public debt problem [The Greek public debt problem]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 777-802, December.
    19. Nicola Acocella, "undated". "The theoretical roots of EMU institutions and policies during the crisis," Working Papers 126/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e Modelli per l'Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza MEMOTEF.
    20. George PETRAKOS, 2014. "Economic Crisis In Greece. European And Domestic Market And Policy Failures," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 39, pages 9-33.

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