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The long memory story of real interest rates. Can it be supported?

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  • I A Venetis
  • A Duarte
  • I Paya

Abstract

This papers finds evidence of fractional integration for a number of monthly ex post real interest rate series using the GPH semiparametric estimator on data from fourteen European countries and the US. However, we pose empirical questions on certain time series requirements that emerge from fractional integration and we find that they do not hold pointing to "spurious" long memory and casting doubts with respect to the theoretical origins of long memory in our sample. Common stochastic trends expressed as the sum of stationary past errors do not seem appropriate as an explanation of real interest rate covariation. From an economic perspective, our results suggest that most European countries show higher speed of real interest rate equalization with Germany rather than the US.

Suggested Citation

  • I A Venetis & A Duarte & I Paya, 2006. "The long memory story of real interest rates. Can it be supported?," Working Papers 578952, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:578952
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rate; Long memory; Fractional Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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