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Uncovered Interest Parity and Policy Behavior New Evidence

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Abstract

McCallum (1994a) introduces policy behavior to resolve previous empirical rejections of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) theory. In this note, we reexamine his policy behavior argument. First, we extend the data set used by McCallum to include the recent 8 years, and contrary to the analysis provided by McCallum, we make a thorough econometric analysis of his UIP specification. It is shown that in most cases his theory is upported by the data as well as it passes conventional econometric tests. We then take a closer look at his policy behavioral relationship, but unfortunately it turns out that this specification is inconsistent with the UIP specification suggested by McCallum (1994a).

Suggested Citation

  • Christensen, Michael, 2000. "Uncovered Interest Parity and Policy Behavior New Evidence," Finance Working Papers 00-2, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2000_002
    Note: Later published in Economics Letters, 69, 2000, p. 81-87
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2005. "The Long Memory Story Of Real Interest Rates. Can It Be Supported?," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    2. Vipul Bhatt & Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Global integration of India's Money Market : Interest rate parity in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 164, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    3. Ozgur Aslan & H. Levent Korap, 2010. "Does the uncovered interest parity hold in short horizons?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-365.
    4. Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2020. "A new & simple model of currency crisis: Bifurcations and the emergence of a bad equilibrium," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    5. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2008. "The Simultaneity Bias of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers 08_20, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
    6. Felmingham, Bruce & Leong, SuSan, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90- and 180-day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
    7. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    8. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Uncovered interest rate parity through the lens of fractal methods: Evidence from the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    9. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2013. "An empirical study of nonlinear adjustment in the UIP model using a smooth transition regression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-120.
    10. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    11. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2015. "The Simultaneity Bias of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: evidence using survey data for Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1718-1725.
    12. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    14. Bruce Felmingham & SuSan Leong, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90‐ and 180‐day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
    15. Pikoulakis, Emmanuel V. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2012. "Another look at the uncovered interest rate parity: Have we missed the fundamentals?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 476-479.
    16. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:2463 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:lan:wpaper:2605 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Beyaert, Arielle & Garcia-Solanes, Jose & Perez-Castejon, Juan J., 2007. "Uncovered interest parity with switching regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-202, March.
    20. repec:lan:wpaper:2382 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.

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    Keywords

    Uncovered Interest Parity; Policy Behavior;

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