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International Trade and Industrialization with Negative Population Growth

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  • Hiroaki Sasaki

Abstract

This paper builds a small-open-economy, non-scale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then, the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On other hand, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is large, the home country becomes a manufacturing country. Then, the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on both the home country and the world population growth rate. Moreover, the home country is better off under free trade than under autarky in terms of per capita consumption growth irrespective of whether the population growth is positive or negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroaki Sasaki, 2012. "International Trade and Industrialization with Negative Population Growth," Discussion papers e-12-009, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-12-009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2012. "Trade Patterns and Non-Scale Growth between Two Countries," Discussion papers e-12-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Trade, Non‐Scale Growth And Uneven Development," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 691-711, November.
    3. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
    4. Thomas Christiaans, 2011. "Semi-endogenous growth when population is decreasing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2667-2673.
    5. Wong, Kar-yiu & Yip, Chong K, 1999. "Industrialization, Economic Growth, and International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 522-540, August.
    6. Christiaans, Thomas, 2008. "International trade and industrialization in a non-scale model of economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 221-236, September.
    7. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2011. "Population growth and north-south uneven development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 307-330, April.
    8. Holger Strulik, 2005. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D‐based Models of Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 129-145, February.
    9. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2008. "International Trade And Industrialization With Capital Accumulation And Skill Acquisition," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(4), pages 464-486, July.
    10. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    11. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
    12. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Non‐renewable resources and the possibility of sustainable economic development in an economy with positive or negative population growth," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 704-720, October.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Positive and Negative Population Growth and Long-Run Trade Patterns: A Non-Scale Growth Model," Discussion papers e-13-004, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Fukatani, Noriki & Imai, Daisuke & Kamanaka, Yusuke, 2022. "Sustainable Economic Growth in an Economy with Exhaustible Resources and a Declining Population under the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," MPRA Paper 113559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2024. "Effects of exhaustible resources and declining population on economic growth with Hotelling’s rule," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2019. "Non-Renewable Resources and the Possibility of Sustainable Economic Development in a Positive or Negative Population Growth Economy," MPRA Paper 92204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    7. Mino, Kazuo & Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2018. "Trade, Luxury Goods, And A Growth-Enhancing Tariff," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1462-1474, September.
    9. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hoshida, Keisuke, 2014. "Semi-Endogenous R&D Growth Model with Negative Population Growth," MPRA Paper 53833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Long-Run Consequences of Population Decline in an Economy with Exhaustible Natural Resources," KIER Working Papers 1062, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-scale-growth model; negative population growth; trade patterns; per capita growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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