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Fertility Responses to Expectations of Child Mortality in a Tuscan Village 1700-1913: A Micro-Data Approach

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  • Mette Ejrnes

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)

  • Karl Gunnar Persson

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)

Abstract

This paper exploits microdata from parish registers in a rural Tuscan village to trace the relationship between experienced and expected child mortality on household fertility strategies. It turns out that spacing of births and hence completed fertility are not only linked to economic risks and infant mortality but also to expected mortality risks as proxied by past child mortality in the village and in previous generations. The results indicate that before the demographic transition households made sequential fertility choices within marriage as a response to economic shocks as well as expected child mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Mette Ejrnes & Karl Gunnar Persson, 2014. "Fertility Responses to Expectations of Child Mortality in a Tuscan Village 1700-1913: A Micro-Data Approach," Discussion Papers 14-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1411
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2010. "Detecting Deliberate Fertility Control in Pre-transitional Populations: Evidence from six German villages, 1766–1863 [Mise en évidence d’un contrôle volontaire des naissances dans des populations p," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 411-434, November.
    2. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    4. Weisdorf, Jacob & Cinnirella, Francesco & Klemp, Marc, 2012. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as a Preventive Check Mechanism in Pre-Modern England," CEPR Discussion Papers 9116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1976. "Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 163-178, August.
    6. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, June.
    7. Stefano Fenoaltea, 2002. "Textile production in Italy, 1861-1913," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 3-40.
    8. Alberto Palloni & Hantamala Rafalimanana, 1999. "The effects of infant mortality on fertility revisited: new evidence from latin america," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(1), pages 41-58, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maja Pedersen & Claudia Riani & Paul Sharp, 2021. "Malthus in preindustrial Northern Italy?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1003-1026, July.
    2. Maja Pedersen & Claudia Riani & Paul Sharp, 2019. "Malthus in Pre-industrial Northern Italy? A Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 0156, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    3. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp, 2017. "Karl Gunnar Persson (1943–2016)," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 21(1), pages 133-139.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Child mortality; Historical demography; Hazard model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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