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A Dynamical Systems Approach To Modeling Human Development

Author

Listed:
  • Ranganathan, Shyam

    (Department of Mathematics)

  • Bali Swain, Ranjula

    (Department of Economics)

  • Sumpter, David

    (Department of Mathematics)

Abstract

A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By tting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranganathan, Shyam & Bali Swain, Ranjula & Sumpter, David, 2014. "A Dynamical Systems Approach To Modeling Human Development," Working Paper Series 2014:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2014_009
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Human Development; dynamical systems; Bayesian; data-driven; GDP; child mortality; fertility rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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