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Do Both U.S. and Foreign Macro Surprises Matter for the Intraday Exchange Rate? Evidence from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmus Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Michael Hutchison

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Thomas Wu

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of both U.S. and Japanese news surprises, measured as the difference between macroeconomic announcements and preceding survey expectations, on the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate. No previous study has considered the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate responses to a broad set of comparable news surprises from both the U.S. and Japan. We show that news surprises from Japan are as influential as those from the U.S. in moving 5-minute JPY/USD exchange rate returns and, therefore, focusing on U.S. news while disregarding foreign news misses half the story. Our results also show that distinguishing between positive and negative news surprises and the state of the Japanese business cycle is important in understanding the link between exchange rates and news.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Fatum & Michael Hutchison & Thomas Wu, 2008. "Do Both U.S. and Foreign Macro Surprises Matter for the Intraday Exchange Rate? Evidence from Japan," EPRU Working Paper Series 2009-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:09-01
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    File URL: http://web.econ.ku.dk/eprn_epru/Workings_Papers/wp-09-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2010. "Effects of Japanese macroeconomic statistic announcements on the dollar/yen exchange rate: High-resolution picture," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 334-354, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange Rates; Intraday Data; Macroeconomic News Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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