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The franc shock and Swiss GDP: How long does it take to start feeling the pain?

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

The paper addresses the question on what is the typical time horizon over which a full transmission of movements in the real exchange rate into real economy takes place. To this end, we base our analysis on the mixed-frequency small-scale dynamic factor model of Siliverstovs (2012) fitted to the Swiss data. In this paper, we augment the benchmark model with the real exchange rate of the Swiss franc vis-a-vis currencies of its 24 trading partners, while keeping the rest of model specification intact. We are interested in investigating the relationship between the common latent factor, representing the Swiss business cycle, and the real exchange rate. We explore the temporal relationship between these two variables by varying the time lag with which the real exchange rate enters the factor model by recording magnitude and statistical signi cance of the factor loading coefficient in the equation pertaining to the real exchange rate variable. Our main conclusion is that the fluctuations in the exchange rate start influencing real economy after one month and their eff ect is practically over after thirteen months. The largest eff ect is recorded at the time horizon of about six to nine months.

Suggested Citation

  • Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "The franc shock and Swiss GDP: How long does it take to start feeling the pain?," KOF Working papers 15-373, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:15-373
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010385479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    3. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(4), pages 299-326.
    4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    5. Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Pamela Hall & Attilio Zanetti, 2009. "Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 183-213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Bernholz & Ernst Baltensperger & David Iselin & Oliver Landmann & Rudolf Minsch, 2015. "Der »Franken-Schock«: Die Freigabe des Schweizer Franken –wer gewinnt und wer verliert?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(05), pages 03-19, March.
    2. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
    4. Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2017. "Dissecting models' forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 294-299.
    5. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin, 2022. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: Goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015," EconStor Preprints 266362, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    Keywords

    Factor model; Mixed-frequency data; Exchange rate; GDP growth; KOF-Key-frankenschock;
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