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International terrorism, political instability and the escalation effect

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  • Nauro F. Campos
  • Martin Gassebner

Abstract

What are the main causes of international terrorism? The lessons from the surge of academic research that followed 9/11 remain elusive. The careful investigation of the relative roles of economic and political conditions did little to change the fact that existing econometric estimates diverge in size, sign and significance. In this paper we present a new rationale (the escalation effect) stressing domestic political instability as the main reason for international terrorism. Econometric evidence from a panel of more than 130 countries (yearly from 1968 to 2003) shows this to be a much more promising avenue for future research than the available alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Nauro F. Campos & Martin Gassebner, 2009. "International terrorism, political instability and the escalation effect," KOF Working papers 09-220, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-220
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005778530
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    3. Kazeem Bello Ajide & Olorunfemi Yasiru Alimi, 2023. "Inflation, inflation volatility and terrorism in Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 493-509, January.
    4. Ajide, Kazeem Bello & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru, 2021. "Environmental impact of natural resources on terrorism in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Kazeem B. Ajide & Olorunfemi Y. Alimi, 2021. "Income inequality, human capital and terrorism in Africa: Beyond exploratory analytics," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 218-240.
    6. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Does terror increase aid?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 337-363, December.
    7. Malik, Zahra & Zaman, Khalid, 2013. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1103-1123.
    8. Nauro F. Campos & Martin Gassebner, 2013. "International Terrorism, Domestic Political Instability, and the Escalation Effect," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 27-47, March.
    9. Kazeem B. Ajide & Juliet I. Adenuga & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2020. "Natural resource rents, political regimes and terrorism in Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 50-66.
    10. Giga ABUSERIDZE & Inga PALIANI-DITTRICH & Moris SHALIKASHVILI & Vitolds ZAHARS, 2022. "Challenges and economic adjustment policies in the EU," Access Journal, Access Press Publishing House, vol. 3(2), pages 136-146, April.
    11. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2011. "On the origin of domestic and international terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 17-36.
    12. Adam, Antonis & Tsavou, Evi, 2020. "One strike and you’re out! Dictators’ fate in the aftermath of terrorism," MPRA Paper 103772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    13. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    14. Kelejian, Harry H. & Mukerji, Purba, 2022. "Causal factors of terrorist attacks on countries, and corresponding spill-overs between them," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Dreher, Axel & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2011. "Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 42-46, October.
    16. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2014. "Did the Aid Boom Pacify Sub-Saharan Africa?: Ex-Post Evaluation Using a Near-Identification Approach," TSE Working Papers 14-544, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2019.
    17. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2012. "Where to Spend Foreign Aid to Counter Terrorism," TSE Working Papers 12-316, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Escalation; International terrorism; Political instability; Terrorism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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