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Linear Rational Expectations Equilibrium Laws of Motion for Selected U.S. Raw Material Imports

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  • Husted, Steven
  • Kollintzas, Tryphon

Abstract

In this paper, the authors develop and estimate time-series models of the rational-expectations equilibrium laws of m otion for several U.S. commodity imports: bauxite, cocoa, coffee, and petroleum. The theoretical model is based upon the optimizing behavi or of firms that import in the presence of supply shocks, delivery la gs, and adjustment and inventory holding costs. One of the important features of the empirical model is that the authors are able to estim ate elasticities that distinguish between responses to changes in the environment that importers expect to be relatively temporary versus relatively permanent. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Husted, Steven & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1987. "Linear Rational Expectations Equilibrium Laws of Motion for Selected U.S. Raw Material Imports," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 651-670, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:28:y:1987:i:3:p:651-70
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    2. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    3. Hanes, Christopher, 2010. "The rise and fall of the sliding scale, or why wages are no longer indexed to product prices," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 49-67, January.
    4. Ye, Michael & Zyren, John & Shore, Joanne, 2005. "A monthly crude oil spot price forecasting model using relative inventories," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 491-501.
    5. David De La Croix & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 1998. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand and habit formation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 589-612.
    6. Ye, Michael & Zyren, John & Shore, Joanne, 2006. "Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2736-2743, November.

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