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The Trade Effects of the US Export Control Regulations

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  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the trade effects of US export regulations. In particular, we focus on regulations on the export of integrated circuits (ICs) and IC manufacturing equipment (IME). We employ monthly worldwide trade data from January 2018 to September 2023. Our findings from gravity estimations can be summarized as follows: First, changes in US export regulations significantly decreased US exports to China. In particular, the exports of the main IC products (i.e., processors) decreased by reducing export quantities after the US tightened its export regulations in October 2022. This tightening also significantly decreased US exports of IME to China. Second, tightening the foreign direct product rule did not change the exports of the main IC product from Taiwan (i.e., other ICs) to China but significantly decreased exports from Korea (i.e., memories). Third, these regulations significantly decreased the IME exports from the Netherlands to China, whereas Japanese IME exports to China did not change significantly. In short, the effects in third economies are not uniform.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2024. "The Trade Effects of the US Export Control Regulations," IDE Discussion Papers 911, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper911
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/2000788/files/IDP000911_001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rui Mano & Johannes Eugster & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2021. "Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling," IMF Working Papers 2021/069, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan DESEATNICOV & Kyoji FUKAO, 2024. "U.S. Export Controls and the Restructuring of Global Values Chains: An analysis of Japanese multinationals’ exits from China," Discussion papers 24082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US|Export control|China|integrated circuits|semiconductors;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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