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Income and Population Growth

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  • Brückner, Markus

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Schwandt, Hannes

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this paper we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960-2007 we interact changes in international oil prices with countries' average net oil export shares in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a one percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth over a ten year period increases countries' population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Further, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Brückner, Markus & Schwandt, Hannes, 2013. "Income and Population Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 7422, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7422
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Timothy Swanson, 2017. "Global Population Growth, Technology, And Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 973-1006, August.
    2. Papagni, Erasmo, 2018. "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 248, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Brueckner, Markus, 2019. "Adult mortality and urbanization: Examination of a weak connection in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 184-198.
    4. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    6. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    8. Kenichi Kurita & Nobuaki Hori & Yuya Katafuchi, 2022. "Stigma model of welfare fraud and non‐take‐up: Theory and evidence from OECD panel data," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(3), pages 310-338, September.
    9. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and Labor Market Responses to Reductions in Mortality," IZA Discussion Papers 11716, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Pietro Peretto & Simone Valente, 2015. "Growth on a finite planet: resources, technology and population in the long run," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 305-331, September.
    11. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2024. "The Effect of Abortion Policies on Fertility and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa," QBS Working Paper Series 2024/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    12. Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2015. "Short and Long-Term Effects of Unemployment on Fertility," CEP Discussion Papers dp1387, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Luis Carlos Sandoval-Herazo & Alejandro Alvarado-Lassman & José Luis Marín-Muñiz & Juan Manuel Méndez-Contreras & Sergio Aurelio Zamora-Castro, 2018. "Effects of the Use of Ornamental Plants and Different Substrates in the Removal of Wastewater Pollutants through Microcosms of Constructed Wetlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Rajesh Sharma & Pradeep Kautish & D. Suresh Kumar, 2018. "Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Determinants on Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Study," Vision, , vol. 22(4), pages 405-415, December.
    15. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    16. Revell, Brian J., 2015. "One Man’s Meat…. 2050? Ruminations on future meat demand in the context of global warming," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204205, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Isaac Lyatuu & Georg Loss & Andrea Farnham & Mirko S Winkler & Günther Fink, 2021. "Short-term effects of national-level natural resource rents on life expectancy: A cross-country panel data analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-13, May.
    18. Raghutla, Chandrashekar & Padmagirisan, P. & Sakthivel, P. & Chittedi, Krishna Reddy & Mishra, Smrutisikta, 2022. "The effect of renewable energy consumption on ecological footprint in N-11 countries: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 125-137.
    19. Gradstein, Mark & Ishak, Phoebe W., 2024. "Mother Africa: The long run effects of income shocks on fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 838-849.
    20. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.
    21. Aurora A. C. Teixeira & N. Renuga Nagarajan & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 909-934, August.
    22. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic development; population growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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