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Estimating Income Responses to Tax Changes: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

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  • Holmlund, Bertil

    (Uppsala University)

  • Söderström, Martin

    (National Institute of Economic Research - NIER)

Abstract

Recent research on the behavioral effects of income taxes has to a large extent focused on the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax rate, i.e., one minus the marginal tax rate. We offer new evidence on this matter by making use of a large panel of Swedish tax payers over the period 1991-2002. Changes in statutory tax rates as well as discretionary changes in tax bracket thresholds provide exogenous variations in tax rates that can be used to identify income responses. We estimate dynamic income models which allow us to distinguish between short-run and long-run effects in a straightforward fashion. The estimates of the long-run elasticity of income with respect to the net-of-tax rate typically hover in a range between 0.20 and 0.30. The short-run elasticities are in general smaller but less precisely estimated. We use the estimates to simulate the fiscal consequences of a tax reform that reduces the top marginal tax rate by five percentage points. Such a reform turns out to have negligible effects on tax revenues and may even yield a fiscal surplus.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmlund, Bertil & Söderström, Martin, 2007. "Estimating Income Responses to Tax Changes: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 3088, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Áron Kiss & Pálma Mosberger, 2015. "The elasticity of taxable income of high earners: evidence from Hungary," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 883-908, March.
    2. Díaz-Caro, Carlos & Onrubia, Jorge, 2018. "How do taxable income responses to marginal tax rates differ by sex, marital status and age? Evidence from Spanish dual income tax," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-25.
    3. Jukka Pirttilä & Håkan Selin, 2011. "Tax Policy and Employment: How Does the Swedish System Fare," Working Papers 267, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    4. Blomquist, Sören & Selin, Håkan, 2010. "Hourly wage rate and taxable labor income responsiveness to changes in marginal tax rates," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 878-889, December.
    5. Liang, Che-Yuan, 2012. "Nonparametric structural estimation of labor supply in the presence of censoring," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 89-103.
    6. Hansson, Åsa, 2009. "Are small business owners more successful in avoiding taxes: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 2009:6, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    marginal tax rates; progressive taxes; earned income; tax reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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