Gender-Targeted Transfers and Women’s Consumption: A Structural Regression Discontinuity Approach

Whether gender-targeted cash transfers effectively redistribute resources to women and children in poor households remains an open question. We examine Uruguay’s largest social assistance program, Asignaciones Familiares (AFAM), which is directed at poor families with children and paid to women. We estimate the intra-household distribution of resources and how it is discontinuously affected by AFAM eligibility. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) embedded in structural estimations points to a significant increase in resource shares for eligible women in rural areas–where traditional gender norms likely created greater margins for improvement. In contrast, children’s resource shares are already substantial ex ante and do not increase further with AFAM. Translating these findings into individual poverty outcomes, we observe that while all family members benefit from the program’s income effect, the bargaining effect leads to a greater reduction in poverty for women.