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Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Di Falco, Salvatore

    (University of Geneva)

  • Kis, Anna B.

    (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)

  • Viarengo, Martina

    (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)

Abstract

We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Falco, Salvatore & Kis, Anna B. & Viarengo, Martina, 2022. "Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 15084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
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    6. Clark Gray & Erika Wise, 2016. "Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 555-568, April.
    7. Mueller, Valerie & Sheriff, Glenn & Dou, Xiaoya & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Adriana Paolantonio, 2024. "Understanding the climate change‐migration nexus through the lens of household surveys: An empirical review to assess data gaps," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1234-1275, September.
    2. Bianca Balsimelli Ghelli & Elton Bequiraj & Marilena Giannetti, 2022. "The impact of corruption on migration flows: evidence from Sub Saharan African countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 232, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate shocks; rural-urban migration; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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