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Is The Market Over-Optimistic About The Prospects Of Firms That Issue Equity? Evidence For The Spanish Market

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Gómez Sala

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • María Jesús Pastor

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

Previous evidence has documented that equity issuers underperform in the long-run. One possible explanation is that investors have overoptimistic expectations regarding future earnings and the underperformance occurs as these expectations are corrected over time. Our central focus is to test this hypothesis for Spanish rights issuing firms, for that, firstly we examine analysts? predictions about future earnings of these companies. We observe that forecasts are unusually favourable and, moreover, the post-offering underperformance is most pronounced when analyst predictions have higher optimistic bias. Secondly, we study the market response to issuing firms? earnings announcements in the post-offering period observing a significant negative reaction. So the evidence in this paper is consistent with the excessive optimism hypothesis about issuing firms. Evidencia previa ha documentado que las empresas que amplían capital experimentanrentabilidades anormales negativas en el largo plazo. Una posible explicación es que losinversores tienen expectativas excesivamente optimistas sobre los beneficios futuros de estascompañías y la evolución observada se debe a la corrección gradual de este exceso deoptimismo. El principal objeto de este trabajo es contrastar esta hipótesis para las emisionescon derechos en el mercado español. Para ello, en primer lugar se examinan los pronósticos delos analistas sobre los beneficios futuros de las empresas emisoras. Se observa que laspredicciones para estas compañías son inusualmente favorables y, además, la peor evolución alargo plazo es más pronunciada cuando las predicciones son más optimistas. En segundolugar, se estudia la reacción del mercado a los anuncios de beneficios de las compañíasemisoras los años siguientes a la oferta, observando una reacción significativamente negativa.Por tanto, la evidencia aportada en este trabajo es consistente con la hipótesis de expectativasexcesivamente optimistas sobre las empresas que deciden ampliar capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Gómez Sala & María Jesús Pastor, 2004. "Is The Market Over-Optimistic About The Prospects Of Firms That Issue Equity? Evidence For The Spanish Market," Working Papers. Serie EC 2004-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2004-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finanzas corporativas; ampliaciones de capital; predicciones de beneficios Corporate Finance; Seasoned Equity Offerings; Earnings Forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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