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Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach

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  • Moschini, Giancarlo
  • Myers, Robert J.

Abstract

We develop a new multivariate generalized ARCH (GARCH) parameterization suitable for testing the hypothesis that the optimal futures hedge ratio is constant over time, given that the joint distribution of cash and futures prices is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). The advantage of the new parameterization is that it allows for a flexible form of time-varying volatility, even under the null of a constant hedge ratio. The model is estimated using weekly corn prices. Statistical tests reject the null hypothesis of a constant hedge ratio and also reject the null that time variation in optimal hedge ratios can be explained solely by deterministic seasonality and time to maturity effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Moschini, Giancarlo & Myers, Robert J., 2002. "Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach," ISU General Staff Papers 200212010800001294, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:200212010800001294
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    1. Moschini, Giancarlo & Lapan, Harvey, 1995. "The Hedging Role of Options and Futures under Joint Price, Basis, and Production Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1025-1049, November.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
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