Energy and economic growth in a developing country: the case of Peru to the year 2000

We have only recently become aware of the critical role that energy plays in our modern economic system. The crucial event was the 1973 OPEC embargo, and the subsequent jump in oil prices;There is a real possibility that energy, which we have come to depend upon for our life styles and wealth, may become the limiting factor in economic growth. For developing nations, like Peru, the prospects do not look bright. Sound government policies must be based on studies that analyze from different points of view the energy situation, from the demand side as well as the supply side;A general survey of energy demand estimation is presented here, and one is selected that best suits the particular characteristics of Peru. The main economic and demographic variables are identified and predicted for the year 2000. From there, a number of key inputs and intermediate factors are derived, from which calculations are made to obtain energy consumption by end-use. The total energy demand is the sum of the energy demands in each end-use class;The energy resources are discussed and an estimation of their production levels in 2000 is obtained. By comparing supply and demand projections we can fix the energy position of Peru in 2000, and discuss a series of policy implications that follow from our study.