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Evaluating Econometric Models And Forecasts

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  • Ladd, George W.

Abstract

By validation I mean comparing values generated by a model with actual values to determine how well the model reproduces what it was intended to re produce. Clearly evaluation involves more than this. Evaluation involves judging the appropriateness of the estimation procedures and judging the use made of prior econotnic knowledge in constructing the model. A model can be validated by determining its performance during the sample period, or by deter mining its predictive performance in the post-sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ladd, George W., 1976. "Evaluating Econometric Models And Forecasts," ISU General Staff Papers 197604010800001032, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:197604010800001032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary Fromm, 1973. "Implications to and from Economic Theory in Models of Complex Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(2), pages 259-271.
    2. Christ Carl F., 1973. "The Validity and Verification of Complex Systems Models: Discussion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(2), pages 271-273.
    3. Byron, R P, 1970. "The Restricted Aitken Estimation of Sets of Demand Relations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(6), pages 816-830, November.
    4. Bock, M. E. & Judge, G. G. & Yancey, T. A., 1973. "Some comments on estimation in regression after preliminary tests of significance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 191-200, June.
    5. Judge, G G & Bock, M E & Yancey, T A, 1974. "Post Data Model Evaluation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(2), pages 245-253, May.
    6. Judge, G. G. & Yancey, T. A. & Bock, M. E., 1973. "Properties of estimators after preliminary tests of significance when stochastic restrictions are used in regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-47, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duncan, Steven Scott, 1988. "The relevant forecast of variance of income for marketing decisions under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 198801010800009839, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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