IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/remwps/wp01012019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wagner and the Fading Voracity Effect: Short vs. Long-Run Effects in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

This paper empirically revisits the validity of Wagner’s proposition in a panel of 149 developing countries between 1980-2015 by focusing on different components of government expenditure. We rely on an ARDL approach which allow us to uncover short and long-run cyclicality coefficients. Our results do not overwhelmingly support the existence of higher than unity long-run elasticities of government spending components vis-a-vis economic growth, suggesting that the Wagner’s regularity is more the exception than the norm. Moreover, the case for voracity is fading away as developing countries catch-up the development ladder and graduate from procyclicality. In fact, most short-run elasticities are countercyclical. Finally, some macroeconomic and institutional and political characteristics affect the degree of government spending cyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Wagner and the Fading Voracity Effect: Short vs. Long-Run Effects in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2019/0101, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01012019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0101_2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    2. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    4. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. James M. Poterba & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote99-1.
    7. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    8. Abbott, Andrew & Cabral, René & Jones, Philip & Palacios, Roberto, 2015. "Political pressure and procyclical expenditure: An analysis of the expenditures of state governments in Mexico," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 195-206.
    9. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    11. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:607-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    2. Dong, Kangyin & Sun, Renjin & Li, Hui & Liao, Hua, 2018. "Does natural gas consumption mitigate CO2 emissions: Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for 14 Asia-Pacific countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 419-429.
    3. Sudatta Bharati Mohapatra & Nirmal Chandra Kar, 2022. "Revisiting the Long-Run Dynamic Linkage between Dividends and Share Price with Advanced Panel Econometrics Techniques," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    5. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    6. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale, 2014. "Financing Health Care Expenditure in the OECD Countries: Evidence from a Heterogeneous, Cross-Sectional Dependent Panel," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 207-225, March.
    7. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    8. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    9. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    10. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    11. Usman, Muhammad & Khalid, Khaizran & Mehdi, Muhammad Abuzar, 2021. "What determines environmental deficit in Asia? Embossing the role of renewable and non-renewable energy utilization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1165-1176.
    12. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-43.
    13. MAÏ ASSAN CHEDI, Maman, 2022. "Does Defence Expenditure Affect Education and Health expenditures in Saharan Africa?," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(4), September.
    14. T. Gries & M. Redlin, 2020. "Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 923-944, October.
    15. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2021. "Renewable electricity and economic growth relationship in the long run: Panel data econometric evidence from the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-341.
    16. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "Real interest parity: A note on Asian countries using panel stationarity tests," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 550-557.
    17. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Marta Kadłubek & Le Minh Thong & Tran Van Hiep & Erginbay Ugurlu, 2022. "Managerial Issues Regarding the Role of Natural Gas in the Transition of Energy and the Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on the GDP of Selected Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, April.
    18. Yilmaz Bayar & Marius Dan Gavriletea, 2018. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Financial Development in Central and Eastern European Union Countries: A Panel Cointegration and Causality," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, May.
    19. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    20. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    government expenditure; fiscal policy; government size; political economy; mean group; panel stationarity; cross-sectional dependency; weighted least squares; autoregressive distributed lag;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01012019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandra Araújo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.